My road to the new Harley Sport Glide started with a motorcycle safety course in late summer of 2012 and a multi-year tenure on a faded bandanna red 1990 Honda Elite 80cc scooter. It weighed about as much as I did (a little over a buck fifty) and wobbled dangerously if I so much as sneezed or shivered on the cold ride home from the closing shift at our local café. I got used to cracking the throttle on this fully automatic, ridiculously light vehicle, unknowingly letting my motorcycle skills drip away the longer I rode it.
Early August brought ideal weather for riding in the mountains. No rain, little RV traffic, and several happy riders heading east to Sturgis.
Gaz Boulanger
Eventually came my first motorcycle, a black and gold 1982 Suzuki GS650G (500 pounds with a full tank). The clutch felt like pulling back a bowstring and balancing the beast, while trying to park filled my head with visions of horizontal machinery. I had to relearn how to ride, even going so far as to retake the safety course with my dad, who needed to take it to get his California license. It felt like being thrown in the deep end after spending the seasons splashing in the shallows. Engine-braking? Shifting? Friction zone? No wonder they just hand out scooters to tourists in the Mediterranean. No fuss and off you go.
“It sounds like a pipe dream that he’s selling people,” said Raj Rajkumar, an electrical and computer engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University. “I think it’s basically overpromising, which is typical of Elon Musk.”
To prove his skeptics wrong, Musk will have to persuade regulators that Tesla’s technology for transforming potentially hundreds of thousands of electric cars into self-driving vehicles will produce robots that are safer and more reliable than humans.
And to do that, Musk will have to be correct in his bet that Tesla has come up with a better way to produce self-driving cars than virtually every other of the more than 60 companies in the U.S. working toward the same goal.
Some of those companies are aiming to have their fully autonomous cars begin carrying passengers in small geographic areas as early as this year, but many experts don’t believe they’ll be in widespread use for a decade or more.
Unlike most of those other companies, Tesla’s cars won’t come with the light beam sensors called Lidar that many industry experts consider to be essential equipment for robotic vehicles to navigate the road.
Musk trashed Lidar as a “fool’s errand” and “frigging stupid” in a putdown of companies such as Google spin-off Waymo and General Motors’ Cruise Automation that are including the light beam sensors in their systems.
“They are going to dump Lidar,” Musk assured investors and analysts gathered at Tesla’s Palo Alto, California, office for the 2 ½ hour presentation.
Musk, widely known for his swagger as much as his smarts, spent much of the time trying to persuade both the investors and consumers that he had figured out a better way to teach robots how to drive.
“It is fundamentally insane to buy anything other than a Tesla,” Musk said at one point, arguing that purchasing a vehicle from any other automaker would be like getting a horse.
Musk’s quasi-sales pitch came two days before Tesla is expected to report a disappointing performance for the first three months of the year. Analysts polled by FactSet predict a $305.5 million first quarter net loss based on disappointing car sales, a setback after Musk pledged heading into the second half of last year that Tesla would be profitable from that point onward.
From Musk’s vantage point, Tesla has a huge advantage over autonomous vehicle competitors because it gathers a massive amount of data in the real world. This quarter, he said Tesla will have 500,000 vehicles on the road, each equipped with eight cameras, ultrasonic sensors and radar gathering data to help build the company’s neural network, which will serve as the digital equivalent of the self-driving cars’ consciousness.
The network allows vehicles to recognize images, determine what objects are and figure out how to deal with them. To become fully self-driving, the cars also need a special computer that fits behind the glove box and is powered by a special chip Musk boasted is better than any other processor in the world “by a huge margin.”
Currently the self-driving computer costs $5,000, but the price rises to $7,000 if it’s installed after delivery.
Finally, Tesla will deliver software updates to those computers to make it possible for its electric cars to be driven by a robot, without a human in position to take over in case something goes awry. There will be a slight chance of some “fender benders,” Musk acknowledged Monday, and indicated Tesla will be liable for accident caused by a vehicle under the control of its robot.
“People will die,” Rajkumar predicted. “I can tell you that right now. Because in the real world, crazy things happen.”
Musk predicted that the technology for fully self-driving Tesla will roll out at some point from April to June next year. Then, Tesla will need to get regulatory approval for the fully autonomous cars to drive on roads, something Musk predicted would happen in a few states by the end of next year. He didn’t specific where Tesla will try to gain approval first.
California, Tesla’s biggest U.S. market, requires proof that fully autonomous cars can drive safely on public roads, but most other states aren’t as stringent. And experts say there’s no federal law requiring preapproval for fully autonomous driving, as long as a vehicle meets federal safety standards, which Teslas already do.